James McGinley 10/6/18
AP Gov Period 3
Midterm Election
The midterm election in november 2018 could prove to important for both the democratic and the republican parties. The past midterm elections have proven that when there is an unpopular president such as Trump, they have suffered heavy losses. “Republicans were trailing on the generic ballot by about 8 points, on average.”, Lance Tarrance, news.gallup.com. All 435 seats in the house of representatives are up for re-election during the midterm elections. Along with 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. During the midterm elections, 34 of the 50 states elect their governors to a four year term. Vermont and new Hampshire also elect their governors during midterms but they only elect them to a two year term so it’s a total of 36 states that hold elections for governor during the midterm elections. Democrats have a 7 in 9 chance of taking control of the house while the Republicans only have a 2 in 7 chance of keeping it. Which translates to 78.6% for the Democrats and 21.4% for the Republicans. There are 230 seats controlled by the democratic party and 205 seats by the republican party.
In this next graph it it showing the breakdown of the different districts in each state. It is showing the Democrats have a clear edge in the poll to take the house because they are much closer to majority with the solidly democratic districts by about 50 districts.
Traditionally in the past the house has definitely been more shifted to the left, but has seen a recent trend toward the right in recent years. The overall average is on the left side close to the middle with the largest outlier coming in 1936 with President Roosevelt.
James McGinley 11/8/18
Viggiano Period 3
Self Reflection
After the election on Tuesday, the Democrats won the house and the Republicans kept the Senate. The Republicans not only kept the Senate but they actually gained a few seats, three to be exact. The most likely reason for the Democrats losing three seats would be Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber. I misunderstood the original purpose of the first paper so I never picked a congressional district. So I’m just going to talk about the districts that are not yet decided. There are still 5 undecided districts in California, which is the 10th, 25th, 39th, 45th, and 48th. There are two in New York but the biggest undecided district is the Texas 23rd. All votes must be counted, it’s also time for Gina Jones to acknowledge that Will Hurd maintains over a 1,150 vote lead that is insurmountable given the small number of uncounted ballots. A television interview that smacks of desperation will do nothing to change the reality of the situation; it only highlights the priority she puts on her own aspirations rather than those of the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District.
